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April 11, 2006
OPEaCk #2
By: Silvio
According to Platts:
OPEC's eleven members, including Iraq, pumped an average 29.76 million b/d of crude in March, down 160,000 b/d from February's 29.92 million b/d [...] Excluding Iraq, production from the ten members with quotas fell by 190,000 b/d to 27.94 million b/d and below the official 28 million b/d output ceiling.
Apart from the fact that the EIA gives a different number for February (29.65 million b/d, so March would represent an increase of 110,000 b/d), it is quite clear that if the OPEC-10 members cannot reach their output ceiling in a time of high crude prices, there must be something going on: and this something could (of course, could!) be that the peak production for OPEC countries is 28 million b/d - and that we just passed that peak.
Otherwise, since much of the decline in production can be attributed to Nigerian unrest (thus a contingent event - that could last longer than we think, thou), it is quite difficult to understand why a country like Saudi Arabia (that is supposed to have over 1 million b/d of surplus capacity) didn't cover the "missing" production - getting also a bigger slice of the profits' cake.
By the way, how is Ghawar doing?
Posted by Silvio at April 11, 2006 12:12 PM Category: Peak Oil