Radical Noesis - Thinking outside the box

We are going to need our wits and our hearts about us in 2006. Here are my predictions from the trends I see.

U.S. Politics
A believe that Samuel Alito will be confirmed to the Supremes. This will change a critical balance in a number of areas. It will bring an even more corporate orientation to the Court. Rights for corporations will increase, while rights of people will decrease. The court will largely support the push for increasing the scope of powers vested in the Executive Branch. Federal environmental policies and legislation will continue to erode.

I believe that the Democrats will not gain a majority in the House. They will gain some seats from the 2006 elections, but not a majority. Republicans who are beginning to question the scope of preemptive actions taken by Bush will be under threat.

The DeLay (and Abramoff) debacle will not net as many changes as we might hope. DeLay - like Gingritch before him - will continue to be a force even if convicted of the charges against him.

Nothing much will come of Plamegate.

World Politics
There will be increasing conflict and increasing racism. A firestorm is brewing globally with forces of extremism on all sides. From Indonesia to the Middle East to Europe to the U.S., fear will rule the day. White racism in relationship to the anti-Muslim sentiment will become more visible, and more reflected across the political spectrum. These fears will be utilized to further suppress populations.

The conflict between Iran and Israel and the U.S. is likely to escalate. It seems increasingly likely that either Israel or the U.S. will engage in some form of preemptive strike, or attempt at "regime change." The reasons given for this will be the military threat that Iran poses; however, this is part of a much larger game involving resources and strategic positioning of the China/Russia/Pakistan/Iran coalition.

China will continue to expand its reach and influence.

I believe that, unfortunately, the Israel and Palestine issue will erode ... again. It seems highly possible that Israel will flex its muscle militarily both in Palestine, but also with Iran.

Resources and Resource Wars
Open conflict may emerge out of the Russia-Ukraine situation. Gas is being used as a weapon to cover other conflicts. It seems that the Ukraine is likely to be a Russian "object lesson." for other former Soviet Block countries, and perhaps beyond that to U.S. allies (or regimes supported by the U.S.). Europe and NATO could become embroiled in the Russian-Ukraine scenario.

Oil prices will go up as OPEC seeks to scale back on production, and demand continues to increase. Ongoing discussions between Russia and OPEC will not curb the all out rush of Russia trying to move as much product as possible. Natural gas prices are likely to double again this year.

There will be other resource problems and conflicts. I see the two main resources that will substantively effect everyone, as clean water shortages, and scarcity of metals such as nickel and lead. The water issues will increasingly include the United States as poisons such as DDT will start ending their long percolation through the soil and into aquifers.

Climate
2006 will make 2005 look like a lamb. I believe we have passed a tipping point in global warming. The Gulf Stream will continue to heat, and the North Atlantic current will continue to slow. Ozone alerts will go up and melting permafrost will accelerate the damage being done. We may possibly make it through both the English and Latin alphabet on named tropical storms. Category 5 storms will increase.

The shift in when snow falls and when melts hit will exacerbate the water problems globally as snow pack is not maintained as a year round water reservoir.

Global Economics
The world is in a very fragile place in terms of economics. It will take very little to push it over the edge. Another spike in energy costs, a natural or man made disaster significantly impacting energy supply, production, or transportation could be economically catastrophic. Nations significantly slowing down, or stopping the financing of U.S. debt could topple the apple cart. A significant (thought not major) economic down turn in any major economy could domino.

Global Activism
2006 may be a year of amazing activism from the populace. People seem the crumbling around them, and the lack of effective government response. For a growing part of the global population, the anger at the lack of effective government response (and in many places outright suppression) will mobilize the masses to change. The questions will be who can win the war of ideas. If the global powers that be are effective in utilizing fear as a way of controlling populations and gaining support for policies, then the peoples' movement will suffer a setback. If the truth continues to spread, then governments may well have to transform under the pressure and disruption an aroused populace demands.

One thing that is very clear is that positive change is not going to occur without the voice and activism of the populace on both national and global levels. Expanding and maintaining a global network and awareness will prove a challenge - though not necessarily an insurmountable one.

Conclusion
I believe that 2006-2008 will be a turning point - for better or worse. We are going to have to make some hard choices, and drastic change awaits us no matter which way we go. How we approach and address the challenges of the planet, and the political and economic forces driving us, will determine how much of the population - and how much of the planet - will survive. There will be catastrophe; however that can also offer the opportunity for tremendous positive change. It is up to us - all of us - to craft a better way forward.