Radical Noesis - Thinking outside the box

The transcripts largely affirm what those even marginally informed on the issue of peak oil already know. However, it is excellent to have them finally reach the level of a Congressional committee. Speaking in affirmation about peak oil and the urgent need for the U.S. to address the issues were Bartlett and Udall. Speaking against the issue was the Subcommittee Chairman Ralph Hall. Two expert testimonies were heard: Professor Kjell Aleklett of Uppsala University, Sweden and Robert Hirsch, Sr. Energy Program Advisor for SAIC. Both spoke to the reality of peak oil.

Hirsch's comments are interesting as the U.S. Department of Energy apparently acknowledges that peak oil is an issue that needs to be immediately addressed. Further, that the DoE has run an scenario analysis based on the need for a global crash program to address the problem. The reason why a "crash" program was examined is that trend analysis of peaking fields shows the peak of production and then a steep decline - not a long level period and then slow decline. The following quote from Hirsch's testimony is revealing:

IT'S NOT YOUR MOTHER'S ENERGY CRISIS Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an "energy crisis" in the sense that term has often been used. Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships simply have no ready alternative to liquid fuels, certainly not for the existing capital stock, which have very long lifetimes. Non-hydrocarbon-based energy sources, such as renewables and nuclear power, produce electricity, not liquid fuels, so their widespread use in transportation is at best many decades in the future. Accordingly, mitigation of declining world conventional oil production must be narrowly focused, at least in the near-term.

RISK MANAGEMENT
It is possible that peaking may not occur for a decade or more, but it is also possible that peaking may be occurring right now. We will not know for certain until after the fact. The world is thus faced with a daunting risk management problem. On the one hand, if peaking is decades away, massive mitigation initiated soon might be premature. On the other hand, if peaking is imminent, failure to quickly initiate mitigation will impose large near-term economic and social costs on the world.

The world has never confronted a problem like this. Risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures well prior to peaking. Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur, the challenge for decision-makers is indeed vexing. Mustering support for an approaching invisible disaster is much more difficult than for one that is obvious.

Hirsch is clear that while global peak oil might be a decade or more in the future, that it is also possible that we are at peak right now. The research indicates that we don't know we have hit the peak until we have passed it. He also acknowledges that there is no short term alternative to meet our petroleum needs.

Particularly telling was a chart that Hirsch provided for the committee:

The net difference between annual world oil reserves additions and annual oil consumption has been declining for decades.

It is clear from this chart that there has been no major oil find that would reverse the trend of oil depletion. Deffeyes stated this clearly in his book "Power Down," and other experts state the same thing. Therefore our ability to predict when the peak will happen is totally dependent on the accuracy of known oil reserves. Since those numbers have been manipulated and are constantly being revised downwards, it would seem that even the DoE thinks that peak may be sooner rather than later.

Statement of Congressman Roscoe Bartlett to the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality on 12/07/05

RESOLUTION

Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the `Man on the Moon' project to address the inevitable challenges of `Peak Oil'.

Whereas the United States has only 2 percent of the world's oil reserves;

Whereas the United States produces 8 percent of the world's oil and consumes 25 percent of the world's oil, of which nearly 60 percent is imported from foreign countries;

Whereas developing countries around the world are increasing their demand for oil consumption at rapid rates; for example, the average consumption increase, by percentage, from 2003 to 2004 for the countries of Belarus, Kuwait, China, and Singapore was 15.9 percent;

Whereas the United States consumed more than 937,000,000 tonnes of oil in 2004, and that figure could rise in 2005 given previous projection trends;

Whereas, as fossil energy resources become depleted, new, highly efficient technologies will be required in order to sustainably tap replenishable resources;

Whereas the Shell Oil scientist M. King Hubbert accurately predicted that United States domestic production would peak in 1970, and a growing number of petroleum experts believe that the peak in the world's oil production (Peak Oil) is likely to occur in the next decade while demand continues to rise;

Whereas North American natural gas production has also peaked;

Whereas the United States is now the world's largest importer of both petroleum and natural gas;

Whereas the population of the United States is increasing by nearly 30,000,000 persons every decade;

Whereas the energy density in one barrel of oil is the equivalent of eight people working full time for one year;

Whereas affordable supplies of petroleum and natural gas are critical to national security and energy prosperity; and

Whereas the United States has approximately 250 years of coal at current consumption rates, but if that consumption rate is increased by 2 percent per year, coal reserves are reduced to 75 years: Now, therefore, be it

Resolved, That it is the sense of the House of Representatives that--

(1) in order to keep energy costs affordable, curb our environmental impact, and safeguard economic prosperity, including our trade deficit, the United States must move rapidly to increase the productivity with which it uses fossil fuel, and to accelerate the transition to renewable fuels and a sustainable, clean energy economy; and

(2) the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency of the `Man on the Moon' project to develop a comprehensive plan to address the challenges presented by Peak Oil.