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December 4, 2005
Tired of Hearing About Dependence On Foreign Oil
By: Rowan Wolf
I don't know about you, but I am darned tired of hearing the catch phrase "End (reduce) our dependence on foreign oil." Let's get real. As long as we are dependent on oil, we are going to be dependent on "foreign" oil. Oil production in the United States peaked in 1970. Oil production in most of the world peaked by 1997 with the exception of Middle East reserves, and a couple of others. It is widely believed that a global peaking of oil has already happened, or is very near to happening. This includes the supply in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia in particular. That is the supply side of the equation.
On the demand side of the equation, we have global oil consumption increasing every year. That increase includes a yearly, and steady, increase in oil demand in the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2004, the United States was consuming 20.7 billion barrels per day of oil. It was importing 12.1 billion barrels per day. That means that 58.5% of the oil consumed in the U.S. every day is imported. In order to end dependence. The EIA has the following chart in its November 2005 report OIL:
The graph clearly shows a steady decrease in U.S. domestic production, and a steady increase in imports, with an overall increase in consumption.
It looks to me that in order to "end our dependence on 'foreign' oil, " we would need to decrease our consumption initially by roughly 60%. However, we would then need to decrease consumption every year by about 3% - assuming the decline in U.S. supply does not drop off precipitously.
Conservation alone is not going to get us to even the 60% decrease. Further, virtually nothing is being supported or promoted in the areas of either massive efficiencies, or significant renewable energy resource development. "End dependence on foreign oil" is an empty statement at best, and an outright lie at worst. If that is the plan, then it is high time to get started.
According to that same EIA report (also at this link), what oil is being produced in very precarious. The disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico due to the hurricanes still have 46.7 percent of Gulf oil production (and 39.8% of natural gas) still shut down as on November 10, 2005. [see also this EIA report - Hurricane Impacts on the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets.]
We are in a crisis whether the government, or oil companies want to admit it or not. "Ending dependence on foreign oil" may make nice political rhetoric, but that is exactly what it is - rhetoric. We need to challenge every representative, party, and pundit that spouts this line of bull. It is nothing more than pure propaganda that keeps the truth of the petroleum resources situation out of the public eye. At the same time, it allows the promotion of increased exploration in fragile areas, decreased environmental restrictions on oil companies and pollution, and gives folks a false sense of security about where we are headed.
The EIA report (also at this link) is the most complete and honest document on oil resources I have seen from an official source. It might be a good idea to send it to those folks spouting the oil independence jargon. They can hardly say that their own energy agency is spouting propaganda.
Posted by Rowan at December 4, 2005 7:24 AM Category: Peak Oil