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October 25, 2005

Wilma the Unpredictable

By: Rowan Wolf

Wilma is once more proving itself to be unpredictable. After meandering around the Caribbean Sea Wilma jumps from a Category 1 hurricane to a monster 5. Then it parks over the Yucatan and drops 5 plus feet of rain. Then it heats up and refuses to cool down across the Gulf of Mexico, sending a 45 foot storm surge into Havana before hitting Florida. Then instead of weakening over land, it hits the east cost of Florida - still at a category 3. Not to be laid to rest, the hurricane heads up the eastern seaboard of the united States to join forces with a nor'easter which threatens to create "the perfect storm." This is definitely bad news for New England which has already been inundated with floods. The nor'easter is expected to produce 20 foot seas and a 3 foot storm surge. Part of the nor'easter formation seems to be an "unusual" cold trough that extends from Canada to the Florida border and covers almost all of the east coast. While some may write this off as "just a bad weather season," it seems that the coincidences are off the chart.

Might all of this be caused by global warming? It seems likely to me. The expectation of drastic weather goes up significantly in global warming scenarios. The world, and not just the U.S., is certainly experiencing dramatic weather and climatic events.

Do a google search "hottest year on record," and watch the results:
World Temperatures Keep Rising With a Hot 2005 - 2005 predicted to be the hottest year on record (Wa. Post, 10/13/05).

2004 is 4th hottest year for world since 1861, U.N. report says, USA Today, 12/15/04

U.N.: 2003 third hottest year on record, USA Today, 12/16/03

2002 second hottest year on record, Environmental Science and Technology, 1/02/03. 1998 was the hottest on record at the time.

So here we have them in order of hottest years on record: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004. Does there seem to be a pattern here? Want to make any bets on 2006?

It seems pretty clear that we have hit an escalating temperature increase. How high will it go, and how fast? Where will it stop? When will it hit the "tipping point" and drop us into an ice age? I am not hearing much in specific predictions. However, if the weather was wonky this year, then my guess it will get wonkier next year. Thus far in the hurricane season, all the old records have doubled (or more). Next year could be even more interesting.

The last three hurricanes have each had their oddities. All of them hit cat 5 - another record. Wilma's unpredictability may make the record books beyond being the most intense Atlantic storm ever recorded. There is still over a month in the "official" hurricane season, and the climate gods have time to whip up something even more perverse. Anyone thinking about buying stock in the Weather Channel? My guess is that their viewing audience is growing by leaps and bounds. Of course, CNN has been no slouch in reporting either.

Posted by Rowan at October 25, 2005 7:56 AM Category: Global Warming