Radical Noesis - Thinking outside the box

The Willamette Week article discusses and Oregon Department of Transportation report on transportation taxes; However, the report itself - "Oregon's Mileage Fee Program and Road User Fee Pilot Program - Report to the 73rd Oregon Legislative Session, under section 2.4.3 "Peak Oil" reads:

"Some petroleum industry experts predict that before 2010 the world production of conventional oil will crest and enter a permanent decline while others estimate the midpoint will be reached as late as 2030 if oil consumption growth levels increase at a 2 percent rate.10 Furthermore, the recent and projected increases in global demand for oil products - owing to growing economies in China, India and other emerging national economies - may well cause the peak to arrive earlier than anticipated. Whichever estimate of the "peak" is correct, it is now clear that oil supplies will become constricted in the not too distant future.11 After the peak, gasoline prices would increase significantly while alternatively powered vehicles and fuel efficiency measures are developed and employed at a greater rate of acceptance."

The report even goes on to include potential resource wars - though it doesn't call them that.

"As the oil reserves of western democracies decline, their economies are becoming ever more reliant on the oil production capacity of nations with potentially volatile political climates. The world's nations with the largest remaining oil reserves - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Russia, Libya, Nigeria - all have great potential for political volatility. Disruptive politics leads to disruptions in oil production that result in oil price hikes. While western nations will work to calm the political volatility in these nations, the potential for large price swings owing to political events are likely not to be stilled in the near term. Large price swings in the world supply of oil will significantly increase the demand for vehicles with greater fuel efficiency in the coming decades."

Meanwhile the cover story for the August 2005 National Geographic is Future Power - Where Will the World Get It's Next Energy Fix. Michael Parfit talks about the end of oil in a manner that implies "everybody knows." However, it is clear that "everybody" doesn't know. The focus of Parfit's article is on how we replace oil as a cheap energy source. He discusses, solar, biomass, nuclear fusion, etc., but the answer to the question posed in the title of his article is "No":

"Is there such a fuel? The short answer is no. Experts say it like a mantra: "There is no silver bullet." Though a few true believers claim that only vast conspiracies or lack of funds stand between us and endless energy from the vacuum of space or the core of the Earth, the truth is that there's no single great new fuel waiting in the heart of an equation or at the end of a drill bit."

It is interesting that the end of oil is increasingly showing up in articles from both small and large organizations, but that it is not making the news. This is alarming as most people get their "critical" information from the "news" media. People also determine what are critical issues from that same media. If the "news" isn't saying anything, then it must not be important. While National Geographic is a great magazine, it is not one of those periodicals that most people in the U.S. read.

The issue of a lack of news coverage goes beyond the boundaries of the United States. While papers across the globe (and even television media) consistently talk about global warming, there is virtually no mention of the end of cheap oil. The US corporate media doesn't talk about either issue (no censorship in the free press - hah!). That shows the power of the petroleum industry I guess. While they are increasingly willing to engage on the discussion of global warming - particularly what to do with CO2 (carbon sequestration is particularly of interest) - and are even willing to forecast peak oil issues in their public documents, they apparently don't want this information in the "news." Perhaps after they have consolidated their grip on "alternative" energies we will see a lot more in the corporate press about peak oil. Meanwhile, I guess that Willamette Week and National Geographic readers will have to spread the word.